Here's Why an OLED iPhone Will Be So Expensive

在过去几周中,我收到了大量的电话about rumors that an OLED iPhone will cost well over $1,000. While this might seem excessive, it's really just basic supply and demand. It seems that media types inquiring about this subject either did not take economics in school or are just not seeing the big picture.

We have known for some time that OLED displays are in high demand and short supply. That means that OLED displays, if Apple can get them, will initially be quite costly. Suppliers I have talked to in Asia say the actual cost of a 5.7-inch OLED panel today is somewhere between $230 and $280, depending on quantity and availability.

I saw my first OLED almost 20 years ago while a display factory in Osaka, Japan. It was a very early prototype, but eventhen, manufacturers knew they would have yield problems and high costs for many years. At first, only one or two out of 10 were even usable.

At CES 2017, much of the industry got a good look at the incredible quality and resolution that OLED technology provides. Many TV vendorsshowed offearly models of large-screen OLED TVs, some priced over $10,000. One key thing about OLED displays is that the blacks are blacker and the whites are whiter and every pixel is illuminated so color depth and concentration is amazing. But when I talked these vendors, they told me not to expect OLED TVs in any large quantities yet; the problems facing the industry 20 years ago are still present today.

This is why an OLED iPhone would be so pricey, though I'm sure the Apple faithful will clamor to get one.The company's move to OLED will start a stampede from other smartphone vendors, at least at the high end, exacerbating the supply issue.

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But Apple's move to OLED will have one key positive effect almost immediately. The various makers of OLED displays will be incentivized to invest more aggressively in their manufacturing lines as demand for small OLED displays increases.Thepending Foxconn-Sharp display factorycould focus on making OLED displays too when it comes online later this decade.

I am convinced that Apple has every intention to move all its iPhone models to OLED over the next two to three years. But thanks to basic economic principles, any OLED smartphone introduced today will be very expensive until supply increases bring prices down to more normal levels.

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